Brief
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Your guide to all Scrap Gold
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Scrap Gold Info
Comparing Gold with other investments
Gold has retained its value through good times and bad but make no mistake about it: It has an edge over other investments during difficult or uncertain economic times. In the 1930s, gold was resilient during the Great Depression; stock prices plummeted yet gold was strong. Gold did drop in price during the 1930s but not because of market supply-and-demand factors; the government banned private ownership of gold so people were essentially forced to sell it.
So you’re better off comparing gold with other investments starting with the 1970s and moving onward. As of December 1974, gold ownership became legal for private citizens. Many people opted to dabble in scrap gold during this time.
Gold shines brightest during periods of inflation (especially hyper-inflation). In a period of stagflation, such as in the 1970s, hard assets (precious metals, real estate, natural resources, and so on) tend to do better than paper assets (such as stocks and bonds).
Certainly there are a year here and a month there that show that gold performed poorly. But then, you’re not investing; you’re trading or speculating. The table clearly shows that some common paper investments just couldn’t keep pace with inflation. Notice the column for inflation illustrates that you would need to have at least $14,755 in 2007 just to match the same purchasing power of $10,000 in 2000. Gold resoundingly beat inflation while paper investments fell short.
By the way, the above table might make you ask about gold-mining stocks and how they fared during this period. A good barometer of the gold mining industry would be an index found at the American Stock Exchange called the Amex Gold BUGS Index (HUI). BUGS stands for “Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks.” The HUI is an index representing a batch of stocks that are gold-mining stocks that do little or no hedging. Basically, hedging is the practice of selling next year’s production at this year’s prices to lock in a profit. This practice is fine if gold’s price is flat or declining. But if scrap gold is rising, then the company foregoes the potential profit. Done too excessively in the wrong market conditions could spell bankruptcy for the company. I explain hedging in more detail in Chapter 12 — it’s not a good practice in a rising gold bull market.
Anyway, back to the HUI. How did it perform during the time frame as compared to the other investments in the table? At the beginning of the decade, the HUI started at 73.77 (1/3/00), and it ended the day of trading on June 30, 2007, at 329.35 for a total percentage gain of 346%. In other words, a $10,000 investment in a representative portfolio of gold-mining stocks that made up the HUI index at the beginning of the decade would have been worth $44,626.27. Sweet! Yes . . . gold mining stocks are “paper” investments but fortunately they derive their value from a desirable underlying asset - gold.
